April 2022 Jobs Data

Ignoring the headline unemployment rate of 3.85% in the April 2022 jobs data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics today, there are some not so pleasant underlying trends.

Firstly, the number of people looking for work fell by nearly 7,000. And a large driver of this in my opinion, is people actually leaving the country. According to ABS Overseas Arrivals and Departures data, in March 2022, 60,510 Australians left Australia for long term overseas stays. This is more than double the number who left in March 2019. At the same time permanent arrivals from other overseas countries was lower than we saw in March 2019. In my words, people sick of being shut it are now leaving to catch up on want they missed in the last 2 years. And arrivals are still struggling to recover as people are wary of our border policies. This is what has reduced the unemployment rate in my opinion.

Secondly, the jobs growth between March and April was under 4,000. This equates to 0.03% or an annual rate of 0.36%. At this rate it would take 27 years to achieve the Liberal Party jobs target of 1.3m new jobs!

Thirdly, employment for women fell. Employment in QLD, SA and WA also fell.

So overall an underwhelming set of employment numbers for April

The charts below have more detail on the trends we are seeing in the Australian workforce.

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April 2021 Jobs Data

The April 2021 Jobs Data released today is the first jobs data after the end of JobKeeper.

At one level it looks like the end of JobKeeper did not have a big impact as the unemployment rate fell from 5.7% in March to 5.5% in April.

But if you look behind the numbers you see a different story.

Firstly, the number of employed people fell by nearly 31,000 between March and April. Women suffered the worst here, with the number of employed women falling by over 36,000. From a state perspective, the biggest job losses were in NSW which had nearly 37,000 less people working in April compared to March.

Secondly, the total labour force fell by over 64,000 people between March and April. This means that over 64,000 people stopped working, or stopped looking for work in April. For people who were unemployed in March and stopped looking for work in April, they are no longer counted as unemployed.

Thirdly, whilst the number of unemployed people of nearly 34,000 people in April, this can be reasonably attributed to less people looking for work and not actual job creation (especially as there are nearly 31,000 less people working in April).

My conclusion

I think the end of JobKeeper in March, has meant a lot of people gave up hope of getting work in April.

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