February 2022 Jobs Data

Don’t be fooled by the February 2022 jobs data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last week. Whilst the headline numbers such as jobs and unemployment data look good. There is actually a hidden problem in the Australian economy that these numbers are not showing.

In the 2 years between February 2020 (just before lockdowns and other restrictions started hitting business and employment in March 2020), till February 2022, employment in Australia has grown by only 2.9% and hours worked by 2.4%. In total 373,000 jobs have been added in the last 2 years.

From a growth in jobs perspective, compare this to:

the 692,000 jobs added (5.75% growth) between February 2017 and 2019.
the 525,000 jobs added between February 2018 and 2020.

Another thing to consider is that net migration into Australia in 2021 financial year was nearly 87,000 people leaving the country, compared to the average for the previous 5 years of over 220,000 migrating to Australia.

So the real reason why unemployment is so low, is because we have effectively closed our borders and stopped probably 125,000 to 150,000 potential workers entering the country. Had these workers actually entered Australia, unemployment would have been higher than February 2020.

Not sure if this a policy outcome the government wants you to know.

The charts below have more detail on the trends we are seeing in the Australian workforce.

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April 2021 Jobs Data

The April 2021 Jobs Data released today is the first jobs data after the end of JobKeeper.

At one level it looks like the end of JobKeeper did not have a big impact as the unemployment rate fell from 5.7% in March to 5.5% in April.

But if you look behind the numbers you see a different story.

Firstly, the number of employed people fell by nearly 31,000 between March and April. Women suffered the worst here, with the number of employed women falling by over 36,000. From a state perspective, the biggest job losses were in NSW which had nearly 37,000 less people working in April compared to March.

Secondly, the total labour force fell by over 64,000 people between March and April. This means that over 64,000 people stopped working, or stopped looking for work in April. For people who were unemployed in March and stopped looking for work in April, they are no longer counted as unemployed.

Thirdly, whilst the number of unemployed people of nearly 34,000 people in April, this can be reasonably attributed to less people looking for work and not actual job creation (especially as there are nearly 31,000 less people working in April).

My conclusion

I think the end of JobKeeper in March, has meant a lot of people gave up hope of getting work in April.

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At the end of this session, you will have multiple ideas on how your business can survive and thrive in these uncertain times.

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